upgrade_rates_probability_calculators [Flyff Iblis Wiki]

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====== Upgrade Calculators ======
//Based on official 2010 eFlyFF settings, Iblis upgrade tables have been set in stone since 2017, remaining unchanged since Iblis's launch.// 

Avoid the gambler's fallacy; each attempt, whether the 999th or 9999th, stays at the same probability, always 0.1% when going +10 ultimate weapon. In Flyff, let's say you're trying to upgrade your ultimate weapon from +9 to +10, but each attempt has a low success rate of 0.1%. When you fail several times, you might think, "I've failed so much already, so my chances must improve soon." However, the game doesn't work that way. Each upgrade attempt is like flipping a coin with a fixed chance of success, just like a coin flip always has a 50% chance of heads. Past failures don't make success more likely in the future. Each attempt stays the same, regardless of what happened before.

{{fallacy.png}}

By using the **Ultimate Upgrade Probability Calculator** below and entering the data from the player's complaint on the screenshot above, we can estimate that he had a 53.72% chance of successfully reaching +10 after using 770 xpros, with a remaining 46.28% chance getting no upgrade at all. If he decides to buy another set of 770 xpros, he still have 46.28% chance of getting nothing attempting to upgrade 770 times consecutively.

===== Ultimate Upgrade Probability Calculator =====
{{vamp_yoyo.gif}}{{ancient_1h_sword.gif}}
{{url>https://wiki.flyff-iblis.net/calculator_ultimate.php height 150px noscroll noborder alignment fullscreen|alternate-text}}
^ Ultimate Weapon+ ^ Chance (%) ^
| +0 to +1 | 11% |
| +1 to +2 | 9% |
| +2 to +3 | 7% |
| +3 to +4 | 5% |
| +4 to +5 | 3% |
| +5 to +6 | 0.9% |
| +6 to +7 | 0.7% |
| +7 to +8 | 0.5% |
| +8 to +9 | 0.3% |
| +9 to +10 | 0.1% |

===== Normal Upgrade Probability Calculator =====
{{wooden.gif}}
{{url>https://wiki.flyff-iblis.net/calculator_normal.php height 150px noscroll noborder alignment fullscreen|alternate-text}}
^ Normal Weapon+ ^ Chance (%) ^
| +0 to +1 | 100% |
| +1 to +2 | 100% |
| +2 to +3 | 70% |
| +3 to +4 | 50% |
| +4 to +5 | 40% |
| +5 to +6 | 30% |
| +6 to +7 | 20% |
| +7 to +8 | 10% |
| +8 to +9 | 5% |
| +9 to +10 | 2% |

===== Accessory/Jewelry Upgrade Probability Calculator =====
{{adept_ring.png}}{{champ_ring.png}}{{defender_ring.png}}{{marksman_ring.png}}
{{url>https://wiki.flyff-iblis.net/calculator_acc.php height 150px noscroll noborder alignment fullscreen|alternate-text}}
^ Jewelry+ ^ Chance (%) ^
| +0 to +1 | 100% |
| +1 to +2 | 100% |
| +2 to +3 | 63% |
| +3 to +4 | 33% |
| +4 to +5 | 26% |
| +5 to +6 | 21% |
| +6 to +7 | 17% |
| +7 to +8 | 14% |
| +8 to +9 | 11% |
| +9 to +10 | 9% |
| +10 to +11 | 8% |
| +11 to +12 | 7% |
| +12 to +13 | 6% |
| +13 to +14 | 5% |
| +14 to +15 | 4% |
| +15 to +16 | 3% |
| +16 to +17 | 2% |
| +17 to +18 | 1% |
| +18 to +19 | 0.7% |
| +19 to +20 | 0.1% |
===== Weapon/Shield Piercing Probability Calculator =====
{{wooden.gif}}{{greenshield.gif}}
{{url>https://wiki.flyff-iblis.net/calculator_weapon_pierce.php height 150px noscroll noborder alignment fullscreen|alternate-text}}
^ Weapon/Shield(?/10) ^ Chance (%) ^
| 0 slot to 1 slot | 50% |
| 1 slots to 2 slots | 25% |
| 2 slots to 3 slots | 12.5% |
| 3 slots to 4 slots | 6.25% |
| 4 slot to 5 slot | 3.13% |
| 5 slots to 6 slots | 1.56% |
| 6 slots to 7 slots | 0.78% |
| 7 slots to 8 slots | 0.39% |
| 8 slot to 9 slot | 0.20% |
| 9 slots to 10 slots | 0.10% |
===== Suit Piercing Probability Calculator =====
{{cottonsuit.gif}}
{{url>https://wiki.flyff-iblis.net/calculator_suit_pierce.php height 150px noscroll noborder alignment fullscreen|alternate-text}}
^ Suit(?/4) ^ Chance (%) ^
| 0 slot to 1 slot | 80% |
| 1 slots to 2 slots | 50% |
| 2 slots to 3 slots | 20% |
| 3 slots to 4 slots | 5% |
===== Elementing Probability Calculator =====
{{card.gif}}
{{url>https://wiki.flyff-iblis.net/calculator_elementing.php height 150px noscroll noborder alignment fullscreen|alternate-text}}
^ Element+ ^ Chance (%) ^
| +0 to +1 | 100% |
| +1 to +2 | 100% |
| +2 to +3 | 92% |
| +3 to +4 | 70% |
| +4 to +5 | 53% |
| +5 to +6 | 40% |
| +6 to +7 | 30% |
| +7 to +8 | 23% |
| +8 to +9 | 17% |
| +9 to +10 |13% |
| +10 to +11 | 10% |
| +11 to +12 | 7% |
| +12 to +13 | 6% |
| +13 to +14 | 4% |
| +14 to +15 | 3% |
| +15 to +16 | 2.5% |
| +16 to +17 | 2% |
| +17 to +18 | 1.5% |
| +18 to +19 | 1.2% |
| +19 to +20 | 1% |

===== Card Master / Card Exchanger Chances =====
^ Suit Cards ^ Chance (%) ^
| 2% Card to 3% Card | 40% |
| 3% Card to 4% Card | 15% |
| 4% Card to 7% Card | 4% |

^ Weapon/Shield Cards ^ Chance (%) ^
| D Card to C Card | 40% |
| C Card to B Card | 15% |
| B Card to A Card | 4% |